Honda rolls out fuel cell car

TAKANEZAWA, Japan (AP) -- Honda's new zero-emission, hydrogen fuel cell car rolled off a Japanese production line Monday and is headed to southern California, where Hollywood is already abuzz over the latest splash in green motoring.

The FCX Clarity, which runs on hydrogen and electricity, emits only water and none of the gases believed to induce global warming. It is also two times more energy efficient than a gas-electric hybrid and three times that of a standard gasoline-powered car, the company says.

[From CNN: Honda rolls out fuel cell car]

I guess this answers the question of current interest in mass-producing fuel cell cars. At this stage this is mostly a marketing exercise: get a handful of high-profile customers that happen to have access to hydrogen, charge them an almost all-inclusive $600/months and let them drive the cars around California for a year or two.

My original, completely uneducated guess was that we would start seeing mass-produced fuel cell vehicles in about ten years, which is not a hell of a lot if you take into account how long it takes to engineer a brand new car from scratch. You can bet that Honda is already planning two cars ahead, so expect a second vehicle based on whatever they learn from fielding the FCX Clarity to be offered in 2-3 years tops.

The problem is that in two years either gas-electric hybrids will not be novelty items anymore, or gas prices are going to plummet and nobody is going to give a shit until the next oil crisis. If the hybrids take off, it will hurt any movement to increase hydrogen distribution channels. If the oil prices plummet, everyone is going back to SuVs.